★ ★ ★ Live prediction-market odds

The 2026 Midterms

Who controls Congress. Live odds from Polymarket, battleground Senate races, the generic ballot, and the news driving them. Updated continuously.
--days to Election Day
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Balance of Power

The four ways the next Congress can break. Democrats need both chambers to sweep.

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Presidential Approval

The single best midterm predictor. Below ~45% net-negative approval, the president's party almost always loses the House. This is real polling, not a market.

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Control of Congress

Odds each party wins the chamber. Bar splits Democrat vs Republican; line tracks the Democratic price over the past week.

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Battleground Senatesorted by tightness

Every contested seat, closest first. Odds are the leading candidate's chance to win.

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Generic Ballot

Odds of winning the national House popular vote, and the single most-likely margin.

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The Latest
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